Will my baby actually be born on my due date?
Have you ever wondered “Will my baby actually be born on my due date?”- if so, you’re not alone. It’s one of the most common questions expectant parents ask, and the short answer is: probably not.
In fact, only about 4–5% of babies arrive on their exact due date. That means there’s a 95% chance your little one will choose a different day entirely. So, if you’re planning a quiet evening, a date night, or a moment of rest around your due date—chances are, you’ll get to enjoy it.
Let’s explore why due dates are more of a best guess than a fixed truth, and how you can reclaim your power and peace around this topic.
How are due dates calculated?
Most due dates are based on something called Naegele’s Rule, which dates back to the 1700s. It involves adding 7 days and 9 months to the first day of your Last Menstrual Period (LMP). But here’s the thing: this method assumes a 28-day cycle with ovulation on day 14 - something that varies widely between women.
Even when conception dates are known, research shows pregnancy length can vary by up to 37 days. That’s more than five weeks of natural variation - proof that our bodies don’t follow rigid calendars.
Is the ultrasound date more accurate?
Another common question is: “Can I trust the ultrasound date more than my LMP?”
Early ultrasounds (especially before 13 weeks) are often more accurate than LMP-based estimates, particularly if your cycle is irregular. They use foetal measurements to estimate gestational age, but even this method has limitations. Growth spurts, measurement variability, and natural differences between babies mean that ultrasounds can only predict a two-week window for many women, with one-third of births falling outside that window.
Why has my due date changed?
It’s normal to be given one date at your initial midwife appointment and another after your 12-week scan. This shift can feel confusing, but it’s simply a reflection of different estimation methods.
What if I go past my due date?
The question “what happens if I go overdue?” often carries anxiety.
The truth is, it’s completely normal to go into labour anywhere between 37 and 42 weeks. Yet the moment you pass your due date, the pressure can mount - from well-meaning friends asking if baby’s arrived, to healthcare systems nudging toward induction.
Stress and labour don’t mix well. Feeling pressured can release hormones that actually delay the onset of labour. So I encourage you to embrace a due month instead of a due date. It’s a simple shift that can bring much needed peace.
What can I do instead?
Tell people your due month, not your due date. It protects your emotional space and reduces external pressure.
Trust your body and baby. Labour begins when your baby sends a signal that it’s ready. Your body will respond by starting the labour process.
Prepare emotionally. Hypnobirthing, relaxation techniques, and affirmations can help you stay calm and confident.
Research your options. If induction is suggested, ask questions and make sure you have everything you need to make an informed choice that feels right for you and your baby.
Why it all matters
Due dates are often treated like expiration dates, but they’re not. They’re estimates. When we give them too much power, we risk undermining the wisdom and uniqueness of our bodies and our babies.
So here’s my favourite affirmation for you to repeat often and read daily (write it on a sticky note and put it where you will see it).
Your baby will come when your baby is ready.
Not when a calendar says so. Not when someone else decides. But when your baby and your body are ready to work together in the most extraordinary dance of birth.
With love
Emily x
If this has stirred something within you - sparked a question or a reflection, I’d love to hear from you. Your voice matters and your experience is welcome.
Feel free to share in the comments below, or if you’d prefer a more private space, you’re invited to reach out via email at emily@bloominbirth.co.uk or send me a message here.
You are never alone in this journey.